Catamount Sightings

Jack M. Guttenburg Nails it!

2009-09-04T12:40:00.000-07:00

Here's what he writes about the changes in the appraisal industry and it's unintended effects on the housing market.

The objective of HVCC was to prevent pressures being imposed on appraisers to raise values. But HVCC also prevents the loan officers, mortgage brokers and realtors who work with borrowers from pressuring appraisers to get a deal done in time to meet a deadline. Further, they can no longer keep their clients informed about the status of an appraisal because they are no longer in the loop.

In addition, the loan officers, brokers and realtors who fashion deals for consumers used to have access to informal value opinions from the appraisers with whom they worked. Such opinions allowed them to abort house purchases and refinances that clearly would not fly because of inadequate property value. This source of information is now closed to them, with the result that deals that previously would have been screened out are now going through the system to be rejected, imposing needless costs on everyone involved.

HVCC has also pretty much eliminated the ability of a borrower to use the same appraisal with multiple loan providers. Before HVCC, mortgage brokers could use one appraisal with any of the wholesale lenders with which they dealt, and lenders sometimes accepted appraisals ordered by others. Today, brokers are out of it, and lenders using AMCs will not accept appraisals ordered by other lenders because they cannot be sure that the other lenders are following the HVCC rules. The upshot is that borrowers often have to pay for more than one appraisal.

In sum, the HVCC "cure" for the appraisal problem of overvaluation has been implemented in a market where the problem has become undervaluation, and HVCC is making that problem much worse. It should be scrapped. When normal markets re-emerge, it will be time to reconsider how appraisals can be made independent without disrupting business relationships that have served borrowers well.

Read entire article here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/mortgage/187349

Good News? Maybe.....

2009-09-03T10:39:00.001-07:00

http://finance.yahoo.com/loans/article/107648/its-time-to-invest-in-real-estate.html?mod=loans-home

What's Happening with Appraisals?

2009-08-22T11:06:00.000-07:00

The debate over appraisals is inflamed by a natural tension: Real-estate agents and mortgage brokers, who need to complete transactions to collect their fees, are unhappy when an appraiser nixes the sale price. But it also suggests that there may be unintended consequences to an attempt by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to reform the appraisal business.Using the threat of litigation, Mr. Cuomo last year prodded the government-backed mortgage investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into adopting a new code of conduct for appraisers. Since those two companies provide funding for the bulk of U.S. home mortgages, the code, which took effect May 1, has become the national standard for most home loans.The code bars loan officers, mortgage brokers or real-estate agents from any role in selecting appraisers. One result is that more lenders have outsourced the selection to appraisal-management companies, or AMCs, which take a sizable cut of the appraisal fee, often 40% or more. The AMCs pay appraisers as little as $175 to $200 per assignment, compared with the $350 or more that many get when they work directly for a lender."Many appraisers are struggling to survive on the fees paid by the AMCs," says Bill Garber, a spokesman for the Appraisal Institute, a trade group based in Chicago. Appraisers are being asked to work faster even as their fees are cut, and that conflicts with the goal of getting reliable appraisals, he says.Entire article here....http://customsites.yahoo.com/financiallyfit/finance/article-107568-2325-0-your-homes-value-threatened-by-appraisers

Take today's Housing News With a Grain of Salt

2009-08-21T08:19:00.000-07:00

First-time buyers purchased 30% of all homes in July;

• Distressed homes accounted for 31% of transactions;

• The month-to month gain was aberrational, marking was the single biggest gain since 1999;

• Total housing inventory rose 7.3% to 4.09 million existing homes a 9.4-month supply;

• National median existing-home price fell 15.1% from July 2008 to $178,400;

For entire article:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/strong-seasonal-gains-in-existing-home-sales/

The Market Divides

2009-04-29T08:22:00.000-07:00

Very interesting take on the energy of the current market. We are finding this to be pretty accurate.

https://news.fidelity.com/news/article.jhtml?guid=/FidelityNewsPage/pages/real-estate-bottom&topic=real-estate

What's going on in Quechee?

2009-03-21T08:47:00.000-07:00

Weird update on sales and pendings: We went from turgidly SLOW activity throughout the winter with a couple of firesales in the $100,000s to: 4 house currently under contract priced at:

- $326,900, $599,000, $639,000, $659,000!

That's a huge change and a maybe the beginning of a trend. Are they smart people who cashed up before the stock market went totally strange and are dumping money into real estate? I hope so!

Quechee Sales

2009-01-23T10:50:00.000-08:00

Four homes have sold in Quechee Lakes since September 18th of 2008. That's right...four. All have been, if not fire sales, very undervalued. Are we seeing the beginning of the Over-correction phase of the pendulum?

2008-05-11T08:48:00.000-07:00

The stone chimney in Reading, Vermont just after Mud-Season.

The local real estate market continues to be a Buyer's Market, although Seller's that are realistic about the value of their properties are having success.

Here are year to date sales for homes in the area from January 1st to May 10th. These are homes that have been sold through the MLS.

Reading, VT: 645 Rt 106 List: $134,900 Sold: $128,500

750 Stone Chimney $ 169,900 $169,500

425 Bartley Rd $299,000 $232,900

Brownsville,VT:

975 Ski Tow Rd $269,900 $255,000

Woodstock, VT:

9111 Dana Rd $199,999 $190,000

541 Woodstock, Rd $237,000 $185,000

3541 Fletcher Hill $279,000 $214,000

45 Thomas $319,000 $319,000

2111 Austin Rd $349,000 $330,000

2754 Churchill Rd $495,000 $452,000

2182 Birch Way $739,000 $685,000

318 Prosper Rd $795,000 $725,000

27452 Church Hill Rd $1,150,000 $997,100

Notable: In the entire Town of West Windsor ( Brownsville ), Vermont only one ( ! ) house has sold ALL year, and that, a small house in the Ascutney Mountain Resort.

For the same period last year five had sold and they ranged in price from $290,000 to $1,062,500.

2008-03-29T08:38:00.000-07:00

Ice floes tossed up onto the 2nd tee area of the Lakeland Course at Quechee Lakes Resort. It won't be long, golfers!

Sales in Quechee Lakes as of March 31, 2008:

3 homes
8 condos

Last year for the same period:
8 homes
3 condos

Very interesting.

Recent Sales in Reading, Vermont

2008-02-27T10:26:00.000-08:00

The Stone Chimney on Stone Chimney Road in Reading, Vermont.

Ok, since November 27, 2007 there have been 10 sales in town. 5 of these were raw land: 7.3 acres on Stone Chimney Road Extension for $44,000.

168 acres on Grasshopper Lane: $575,000

20.9 acres on Spear Cemetary Road: $290,000

355 acres on Hale Hollow Rd: $725,000

514 acres on Grasshopper Lane: $1,200,000

5 House or camps:

852 Rt 106: $237,000

162 Caper Street: $235,000

441 Fox Run Drive: $207,000

Off No. Puckerbrush: $$250,000

299 Malagash RD.: $640,000

Not a bad 3 months, especially for the dead of winter.

2008-01-17T07:30:00.000-08:00

Speaking of the Jenne Farm. Here is a beautiful close up. Beautiful light!

2008-01-17T07:18:00.000-08:00

Found this incredible, panoramic photo taken from Bald Hill in Reading, Vermont. The slash across the hill in the center is Stone Chimney Road, and the little red farm on the right is the famous Jenne Farm.

Homes sold in Woodstock, Reading, and Brownsville, Vermont.

2008-01-16T12:41:00.000-08:00

Sometimes in the dead of winter we need a whistful reminder of a gentler season. Mt. Ascutney as seen from a hill off Sheddsville Road in Brownsville, Vermont.

In a recent post I got you I listed the final sales tally for Quechee. These are the final numbers for Brownsville, Woodstock, and Reading, Vermont. Keep in mind, these are HOMES sold by Realtors through the Multiple Listing Service. They represent the majority of homes sold, but not all. They serve as a good basis for examining the market.

TOWN 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003

___________________________________________________________________

Brownsville 16 10 14 12 16

Woodstock 39 53 50 61 36

Reading 13 11 9 8 8

2008-01-16T12:38:00.000-08:00

For those interested in the Ascutney Mountain Resort, this is a helpful article from a cool website.

2007 Condo Sales in Quechee, Vermont

2008-01-03T06:07:00.001-08:00

A snow monster seen on the cross-country ski trails in Quechee.

27 Condos sold in Quechee in 2007. Compared to:

30 in 2006

55 in 2005

56 in 2004

22 in 2003

7 in 2002

What a great spot if you love the outdoor life! Just watch out for the snow monster!

2007 Homes Sales in Quechee, Vermont

2008-01-03T05:53:00.000-08:00

The Quechee Lakes Vermont ski hill as seen from the cross-country trails.

35 homes sold in Quechee in 2007 which is actually up from one year ago. There were:

34 in 2006

40 in 2005

51 in 2004

67 in 2003

I find it interesting that of the 35 that sold, only 11 closed during the second half of the year. Over two thirds of the sales were in the first 6 months of 2007.

Next: Condo sales in Quechee for 2007.

Days on the Market in Brownsville, Vermont

2007-10-20T05:17:00.001-07:00

Horses grazing in the Bible Hill area of Brownsville, Vermont.

In the last post I talked about days on the market as an indicator of the strength of the market, and we saw that in Reading, Vermont the time it took to get a house under contract was way up in 2007 over 2006.
What about Brownsville?

2006: the average was 140 days on the market.
2007: the average was 177 days, or 6 months.
Not a huge difference but a Seller needs to be prepared for at least an extra month on the market over last year.

Days on the Market for Reading, Vermont

2007-09-30T12:37:00.000-07:00

A view of Mt. Ascutney and into New Hampshire from Grasshopper Lane in South Reading, Vermont.

Minneapolis, MN Realtor and blogger Don Skelly asks the question-

"Median price of real estate- what does it really tell us"?

According to Mr. Skelly- apparantly not alot. So what stats tell us the most about the local market? Average price? Lets look a t Reading, Vermont sales again. We compared the median price between 2006 and 2007 up until September 12.

The median was up from $285,000 to $340,000. But if you compare the average sales price you get a HUGE difference: 2006= $366,109 to 2007= $660,525

Isn't the median a better indicator of the market, in general. With sales low and the high end back, a $2,500,000 sales skews the average way up.

I like median for markets with small statistical samples like Reading. Or, to help get a better feel for the state of the market, we could also examine Days on the Market.

Reading , Vermont:

2006 Average days on the market: 118 days

2007 Average days on the market: 329 days

That's a big difference.

Quechee, Vermont Real Estate Statistics

2007-09-20T15:03:00.000-07:00

A hot air balloon rises over the 9th hole of the Highland Course in Quechee, Vermont. Cool.

Let me just start by saying Quechee is different. It's not a town, but a huge, sprawling private club of 1,500 plus members that have required amenity and use fees that affect desirability to own there. For a family that's going to use the golf courses, ski hill, tennis courts, swimming pools, beaches, health club, etcc. it'a a GREAT deal. It's just not a normal town; ok?

2006:

-34 homes sold

-median price: $410,000

-3 sold for over $1,000,000 with the top sale being $1,300,000

-30 condos sold

-median price: $335,000

- highest price: $553,000

2007 to today:

-30 homes sold

-median price: $395,000

-None above $1,000,000 with the highest price being $970,000

-20 condos sold

-median price: $235,000

- highest price: $480,000

So. Volume is up. But the high end seems to be dragging here. In all four towns the second home market is a factor but in Quechee it's key, and it's here we find the least interest in the high end of the market. Let's ponder what that might mean.

See ya.

Woodstock, Vermont Real Estate Statistics

2007-09-19T03:52:00.000-07:00

Home in the River Street Historic Area of Woodstock, Vermont.

I like this photo because I built the porch!

Ok, back to the stats. Is the high-end back in the local real estate market? That is the question. We've looked at Reading and Brownsville and the answer seems to be yes.

Let's look at Woodstock. I tried this in another post and the format was confusing. So just the straight dope here:

2006:

-53 homes sold

-median price: $355,000

-6 sold for over $1,000,000 with the top price being $2,700,000

2007 to today:

-31 homes sold

-median price $320,000

-4 sold for over $1,000,000 with the top price being $1,400,000

Volume is down from a year ago and so is the median price, but not by that much. The percentage of homes sold over $1,000,000 is up, slightly. Woodstock, as a market, seems to have remained relatively stable over the last year.

Next up: Quechee

Brownsville, Vermont Real Estate Statistics

2007-09-13T10:53:00.001-07:00

Beautiful Mount Ascutney in Brownsville, Vermont.

I'm back with some more stats, as promised. When we looked at stats for Reading, Vermont comparing 2006 and 2007 to this point it looks to me like the high end is back. Let's see if Brownsville bears that out.

2006:

Number of sales: 10

Median price: $315,000

Number of sales above $1,000,000: none

Sale price to list price: 93%

2007:

Number of sales: 12

Median price: $400,000

Number of sales above $1,000,000: 2 with the highest being $1,185,000

Sale price to list price: 92%

So: Sales are up, the median price is up and houses are selling in the Million plus range again.

So far we've looked at Reading and Brownsville and we seem to be seeing an indication that the high end of the market is returning. What does that mean for the market in general?

We'll think about that for awhile.

Up next: Beautiful Woodstock, Vermont.

Reading, Vermont Real Estate Statistics

2007-09-12T11:34:00.000-07:00

The Stone Chimmney, a Reading, Vermont landmark.

A couple of weeks ago I looked at some statistics for sales of homes in Woodstock, Vermont after reading an article in the New York Times that said: "The median price of American homes is expected to fall this year for the first time since federal housing agencie began keeping statistics in 1950".

Let's look at sales of homes in Reading, Vermont for 2006 and compare them to this year.

In 2006 11 homes sold.

The median price was $285,000.

None sold for over $1,000,000

On average they sold for %95 of the listing price

In 2007, so far, there have been 8 homes sold.

The median price was $340,000.

2 have sold for over $1,000,000 with the top sale price being $2,500,000.

On average they have sold for %94 of the asking price.

So: a %1 drop in sold to list ratio

Number of sales slightly ahead of 2006.

A huge jump in the median price with the two million dollar plus sales.

Hence: The high end is back?

We'll check on Woodstock, Brownsville, and Quechee next.

Price is key in this market

2007-09-03T11:45:00.000-07:00

Downtown Woodstock, Vermont.

Sunday's Valley News has a superb article by Chris Fleisher on the state of the Real Estate Market in the Upper Valley. The gist of it: Prices aren't coming down fast enough to encourage many buyers' to bite

A leading local Realtor is quoted as saying, " The sellers' attitude is locked into 2003 and 2004 prices. They are unwilling to accept the reality of the market."

This is causing a rise in inventory. The old saying about real estate; location, location, location, should be ammended a bit; price, price, price.

Think about it if you're a seller.

2007-08-26T15:48:00.000-07:00

A view of the Kedron Foot Bridge that leads from the village of Woodstock, Vermont up to the lovely residential neighborhood of High Street.

Todays New York Times reports that " The median price of American homes is expected to fall this year for the first time since federal housing agencies began keeping statistics in 1950."

Woodstock homes sold through Realtors in the past 4 years look like this:

Year # Sold Median Price # under $300,000 # over 1 million

01 thru 08/26

_______________________________________________________

2007 26 $260,000 13 2

2006 33 $435,000 8 3

2005 33 $340,000 11 6

2004 36 $267,000 18 2

The other interesting facet of the article is that many who previously thought that national statistics were irrelevant because real estate markets are not national, but local, have changed their mind. We do, indeed seem to be in a national Buyer's Market. I think that the general wisdom has been that Woodstock was, more or less, immune from national trends but the statistics seem to indicate otherwise.

Quechee: "Top 100 Places to Retire"

2007-08-23T18:26:00.000-07:00

In the Vermont Standard's most recent issue, Correspondent Audrey Richardson has a front page article noting Quechee Lakes inclusion in Where to Retire magazine's list of top places to retire in the US. No surprise. Quechee really has it all as far as amenities goes:

2 great golf courses, Lake Pineo's beach, top tennis, a ski hill with a top ski racing program, polo, fly fishing in the Ottaquechee River, two outdoor pools, a newly renovated and upgraded club house and fitness center, wonderful dining, hiking, cross-country skiing, awesome access to the major interstate highways, yet, still quaintly the idyllic Vermont of every ones dreams.

In spite of that, the real estate market in Quechee remains a bit flat at this time and presents itself as an incredible opportunity for the patient Buyer.

There are currently 83 homes and 73 condos on the market.

In 2006 34 homes sold and 30 condos.

So far, this year, 27 homes have sold and 17 condos.

There is a backlog of inventory which makes it a great time for retirees interested in the area to begin looking around for a property they would love to spend their Golden Years in.

Ascutney's plans for the future.

2007-08-22T09:11:00.000-07:00

The owner's of the resort went before the Town again last week to present a vision of where they believe the resort needs to go to be a viable 4 season resort. It entails DEVELOPMENT.

This is not something that should be terribly shocking to anyone. With the exception of a couple of new homes built in 2005 and the refurbishment of some of the Planned Unit Development buildings into time-shares, there has been no new product in the resort for some time. Mountain's Edge, the newest of the 3 condo developments is 22 years old.

Are the Owners really asking for too much here? New real estate projects are needed to be able to inject revenue, buzz, and excitement in to the resort.

The Town, of course, has the right and the obligation to carefuly examine the proposals and ensure that what the resort wants to do is permissible under current zoning regulations. But anyone who has been to one of these meetings can't help but come away with the feeling that many in the Town are stuck in a past thaat no longer exists and would deny the resort any expansion it needs to be able to compete with the larger ski areas close by.

Is this realistic? Is this fair?